In the gambling world, there are only a few ways that a player can routinely, consistently get a long term edge over the house. The first two are card games, namely blackjack and poker. The second is sports betting. In fact, if we don’t count investors and speculators in the markets as professional gamblers, the most successful professional gamblers in history have almost all been sports bettors.
The general public may not be familiar with figures like Teddy Covers, Billy Walters and Lefty Rosenthal, however within the sports betting world they are legendary. In fact, Billy Walters, who made the vast majority of his fortune doing nothing but betting sports, is estimated by some to be worth well over a billion dollars. Check out this 60 Minutes segment to get a feel for what Walters’ program is all about.
Sports betting, or sports investing as many professionals call it, is far too complex a topic to really even brush the surface in such a short article. It relies on cutting-edge analytic techniques like logistic regression and even machine learning. But the underlying, fundamental reason that sharp sports bettors can find an edge game after game, day after day, year after year is that the sports books are awash with dumb money. 95% of sports bettors are going with their heart, not their mind. If enough low-information bettors get behind their favorite team at bad enough odds, they can move the line far enough from what’s correct that sharp bettors can profit. To read more check out covers.com.
In fact, if enough dumb money places bets on any contest, the line will almost always be wrong. The only thing that stops this is smart money placing bets when the line gets out of whack and quickly moving it back towards its equilibrium. The beauty of the NBA is that it has so many games, and so many blindly loyal, fanatical followers with discretionary income that a sharp bettor can almost always find incorrect lines set for some NBA game being played somewhere.
Covers.com was founded in 1995 by legendary sports bettor, educator and author, Teddy Covers. Its round-the-clock staff keeps its readers informed and ahead of the curve. Expert analysis provides readers with incisive insights not found elsewhere. Covers.com hosts the most comprehensive, informative review of sports books anywhere online and it’s updated daily. To read more, check out covers.com.